By Liu Nian, People’s Daily
China stands at a pivotal juncture as its demographic landscape shifts: birth rates continue to fall while the proportion of citizens aged 60 or older has surpassed 20% of the total population, according to its National Bureau of Statistics. This “silver wave” coincides with the nation’s push toward common prosperity, yet it raises a pressing paradox—how to reconcile rapid ageing with the challenge of achieving widespread affluence.
Does this demographic transition signal the erosion of China’s famed population dividend? Or can evolving definitions of productivity and innovation redefine its economic trajectory?
The answer lies in untangling the interplay between demographic trends, policy frameworks, and economic resilience. While China’s meteoric rise since the 1980s was undeniably fueled by its vast labor pool, analysts argue that institutional strengths—from socialist governance with Chinese characteristics to decades of reform and opening-up—unleashed an economic miracle no less critical than sheer workforce size.
Quantity alone no longer dictates prosperity. Even as the working-age population contracts, policymakers emphasize that technology investment, upskilling initiatives, and capital inflows can mitigate labour shortages. A case in point is China’s burgeoning talent reservoir: over 240 million citizens now hold higher education qualifications, fostering a skilled workforce driving sectors from AI to green energy.
This pivot from “population dividend” to “talent dividend” underscores a strategic bet—that quality, not just numbers, will sustain China’s modernization. As automation and innovation hubs like the Greater Bay Area expand, the narrative shifts from demographic anxiety to human capital’s transformative potential. The ultimate test? Whether high-quality development can turn an ageing society into an engine of sustainable progress.
The correlation between population structures and economic dividends defies reductionist arithmetic. It demands the analytical rigour of multivariate calculus, where shifting age coefficients interact with technological vectors and institutional constants. This complexity necessitates a systems-level perspective to truly decipher the demographic dividend equation.
Contemporary economic modelling reveals a paradigm shift: the dividend manifests not merely through crude growth metrics, but through strategic activation of latent human capital. While youth demographics remain crucial, a silent revolution is emerging from an unexpected quadrant – silver-haired populations redefining post-retirement economic agency.
Historical anxieties about elderly technological alienation now confront empirical contradictions. The digital metamorphosis of China’s elderly cohort has become a socioeconomic epiphany. Where pundits once predicted generational obsolescence, silver-haired netizens now dominate Douyin livestreams, orchestrate Taobao storefronts, and curate Xiaohongshu tutorials with the acuity of digital natives.
China’s silver wave of 170 million senior netizens is reinvigorating the digital ecosystem, proving the nation’s demographic dividend maintains potent socioeconomic currency.
This cohort’s renaissance extends far beyond screens. From mist-shrouded Huangshan peaks where septuagenarians clad in Arc’teryx gear deploy DSLR rigs, to Beijing’s frost-kissed ski slopes where grandmothers carve parallel turns, their vitality mirrors youth culture’s intensity. The lifelong learning revolution sees retired accountants mastering Python through digital lecture while former teachers monetize calligraphy tutorials – wisdom economies thriving.
Official metrics quantify the movement: China’s post-retirement cohort channels over700 billion yuan ($96.31 billion) yearly into cultural pursuits and wanderlust, with 35 million silver-haired scholars crowding digital academies and marathon finish lines witnessing a surge of septuagenarian sprinters – concrete manifestations of a nation where sunset years glow brightest.
China’s sunset years fuel economic engines rather than brake them, as evidenced by the phenomenon achieving statecraft recognition. The codified “silver economy” now anchors national policy blueprints, while its lexical zeitgeist cousin “silver power” penetrated mainstream discourse through annual buzzword rankings. Concurrently, medical chaperone services and biographical scribing emerge as legitimate professions among youth entrepreneurs – tangible proof that demographic shifts birth new economic ecosystems.
China has unveiled a national geriatric framework blueprint, mandating creation of multi-tiered, equitable geriatric care apparatus spanning megacities to agrarian counties. The policy white paper prioritizes market-driven eldercare industrialization to address China’s “grey wave” – the coalescing demands of pensioners seeking tailored retirement ecosystems.
By tapping into the potential of an aging society, China aims to generate new economic dividends. The country’s top-level policy design is providing clear direction for future development.
A broader perspective reveals that addressing both the declining birth rate and population aging requires a balanced approach. Further deepening reforms and expanding opening up will provide fresh momentum for Chinese modernization, even amid demographic shifts.
In today’s China, whether young or old, the common goal is to move forward with confidence and live a better life.
